California’s Plunging Birth Rates – Public Policy Institute of California

California’s birth rate has reached near-record lows, contributing to a slowdown in the state’s population growth and portending decades of slow growth to come. What is—and is not—driving the state’s lower birth rates?

California’s birth rate (births per 1,000 residents) is at its lowest level in more than 100 years. The number of babies has declined from its 1992 peak of 6133,000 to 420,000 in 2021 (which is roughly the same as 2021).

Moreover, California’s total fertility rate (the number of births a woman will have in her lifetime) is now the lowest since records have been kept. To maintain the current population level, a rate of 2.1 children per female is required (immigration and immigration aside). In 2008, the fertility rates in California and the country were close to replacement levels. Today, however every state is below these levels. California has fallen faster than most, dropping from 2.15 to 1.52—that’s from 17th highest to 43rd highest. California’s decline is similar to that of Arizona, Nevada, Utah and Idaho. The country’s highest fertility rates are now in the lower plains states, which include the Dakotas and Nebraska.

Family size and birth rates are affected by many factors, including historical, economic, health, and social events. Economic downturns and uncertainty—including the Great Depression and the Great Recession—generally lead to reductions in birth rates. Contrary to this, the boom after World War II saw an increase in the economy and established new social norms that favor larger families. Birth rates fell in the 1970s due to changes in women’s status, including better educational and employment opportunities for women and access to birth control pills. This period is known as the “baby bust”. California’s 1980s birth rate increases were largely due to an influx in immigrants. California’s new baby boom led to birth rates falling steadily since then.

The new bust is due to a sharp drop in the number of young adults in their 20s who are less likely than 13 years ago to marry. Marriage is a key factor for many in the decision to have children—the vast majority of births in California (66%) are to married women (29% are to women who never married and 5% are to women who are separated or divorced, according to the American Community Survey). The birth rates of married women in their 20s is five times that of single women in the same age group.

Others explanations are less important than you might think. Although teen births have fallen, they weren’t enough to drive wider trends. Although housing costs have been a major factor in fertility declines, there are also lower fertility rates in areas that have cheaper housing. Even the pandemic’s effects appear temporary.  Nine months after the pandemic, births fell quickly. However, they have recently returned to normal.

California has experienced a recovery from low birth rates in recent years, thanks to higher immigrant birth rates. But immigration has declined dramatically, and birth rates in sending countries—most importantly Mexico—have also plummeted. The birth rates of most developed countries around the globe have remained low and below replacement level for decades.

Many countries that have low birth rates have policies that encourage higher birth rates. Studies have shown that policies to support families such as parental leave, childcare support and tax credits can make an impact. Even so, the net effect is not enough to raise fertility rates to replacement levels.

California and the United States would experience population declines if there is no migration. As people age, deaths exceed births. Fewer children will mean declining K–12 enrollment and more school closures.  It will also reduce demand for infrastructure in the long-term, such as housing and transportation. This will result in fewer people of working age to care for the aging population. A lower birth rate could allow for greater investment per child, and may lead to environmental benefits that are derived from a smaller population. As California’s population declines, it is essential to keep these longer-term effects in mind to create better outcomes for the future of our state.